Misvisende statistikk

By Frank Wallem

A report of Econ New Homes That shows sales of new homes still falling heavily When Compared with the Corresponding Period last year. The periodic Measured in the report is from mid-February two mid-April.

Chief Economist Kjetil Bjørnstad in Economic Analysis Assume the role of advocate for residential builder industry in its presentation of the figures in E24. He chooses two focus on the parts of the country especially in Nor-Norway where sales growth due two development activity in the oil industry is strong and not for example Norway where development is weak. Even more remarkable is That he chooses to compare with the number of sales in the preceding two-month period.

The preceding period, ie the periodic from mid-December two mid-February is traditionally a weak periodic sales of new homes. If there had Been an Increase From That periodic to the periodic from mid-February two mid-April it would havebeen mildly sensational.

Fortunately journalist in the E24 a bit more awake than you might otherwise experience When he confronted Bjørnstad with the problematic in That They now also have two favoring emphasize the preceding periodic instead of the only relevant ie the same period last year. In the coming Bjørnstad with the followings wing startling answer According to the newspaper:

"Now we do both. Right now it is Important to point out That Comparing with the same period last year is old news. Had we Compared with last year's figures, we had had a negative sales trend Although it now turns. We believe that's it would give the wrong Indication of the development. "

The best thing one can say about this Is that in any case it is better That You Clearly admit That Manipulate figures When they have Their own beliefs about evolution than That try to hide Their manipulations. A more serious line would still havebeen presenting the numbers as They are, but point out That Despite everything looks positive moves towards a stabilization and give a reason for it. I do not rule Bjørnstad That is right That the sharp decline in new housing sales have stalled, but that's not the point here.

Another issue is that's it is almost laughable When Comparing with the same period last year Described as "old news." Well, the point Is that the numbers That last year's figures are Compared with the are brand new. This reasoning leads in general to the comparison with last year's figures are always old news.

We march well there would expect That the future will Bjørnstad Refrain from such comparisons or is it only When The figures show a decline from the previous year comparison is old news?

Frank Wallem is an investor and entrepreneur with a number of businesses and investments. He is also considering several real estate investments. As such, he march also have an interest in the sale of new homes do not fall too much. Wallem seems, however, the value of basing Their decisions most in fact and not just "guess".

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Boligprisene i Norge

Overview of the development of the housing market in Norway. 

By Frank Wallem

Housing prices were by most experts expected to reach "all time high" in 2013 and they got right, but perhaps not in the way they had imagined. IMF believed that prices are already at the end of 2012 was between 15 and 20% overvalued compared to the prices in the EU, but they attracted Despite this expected further strong growth in the first months of 2013.

This proved to be very accurate as the prices actually rose sharply in the first months of 2013, which surprised many Norwegian experts was that there would be such a sharp correction down the rest of the year at the time of writing (mid December 2013) is just as likely that we will see an overall slight decrease of prices edged up. Still, ie housing in Norway still powerful over priced and is characterized by many as a bubble.

The main reason for this bubble can be attributed to the very strong economic development Norway has experienced in recent years. The economic development is impressive and is still strong despite some signs of weakness. Norway, for example, the third lowest unemployment rate in the world.

Norway becomes richer and richer and most people feel the same for his own private finances.

Trends in house prices in Norway

Prices have in the last two last decades varied a great deal, but generally had a strong upward trend.

Since the early 1990s, house prices have risen significantly in six different time periods:

• From the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 1994, the average increase was 13.3%.
• From the first quarter of 1996 to the third quarter of 1998, the average increase of 12%.
• From the third quarter 1999 to third quarter 2000, the growth rate was 16.8%.
• From the second quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of that year, the growth was 10.4%.
• From the first quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2007, growth was 14%.
• And from the fourth quarter 2009 to first quarter of 2010, growth was 11.2%.

Until this fall, it has only been three periods of decline since the early 1990s:

• From the first quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of the same year, house prices fell by 3.2%.
• In the second quarter of 2003 were 1% fall in the market.
• And finally from the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009 was 4% fall in house prices.

At the beginning of 2013 diverge experts' predictions about the future housing prices sharply from those that predict a decent increase next year to those who save an imminent market crash.

Frank Wallem is a businessman and investor based in Vestfold. He is an avid blogger and also use social media actively.

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